Life and Changing Times

A Letter from Ireland

a Chara,

When I got back from the States, I looked out onto my back garden and realized the grass needed to be cut.  Summer in Ireland is a mix of sunshine and showers. Ideal growing weather, and the reason why we have forty shades of green.

We never see the grass growing. One day we look out and everything has changed. So it is with politics and life in general. Change is gradual until it is undeniable and unstoppable.  

I was thinking about this when I read the latest Life and Times Survey conducted by Queen’s University and the University of Ulster. This is the go-to poll for policymakers in government. Traditionally, this poll has always underrepresented Nationalist opinion and voting patterns.

This time around, there is a significant narrowing of the gap, down to 5% between those who would vote to retain partition and those who would vote for unity. This is a halving of the difference over the course of a year. Those in favor of Irish Unity were 36%, those in favor of continued partition 42%, with 11% “don’t know” and 6% would not vote if a vote was held tomorrow.

This is a false question. Sinn Féin is not looking for a vote tomorrow. No credible body is looking for a vote tomorrow. We believe in having an informed and respectful debate and then letting the people decide.

Partition never worked for Ireland, north or south, and has never made economic sense. It fractured public services and entrenched community division. Within ten years, the economy of the north moved from producing a surplus to requiring a subsidy. Belfast would go on to be surpassed by Dublin as the biggest and most prosperous city on the Island.

When Ireland was divided, it was based on a sectarian gerrymander. The six northeastern counties provided a 62% Protestant majority with a 34% Catholic minority trapped in a state that was 100% British and unionist.

The years of conflict that followed were not a theological dispute between warring tribes.It was a conflict against inequality, exclusion, repression and the denial of self-determination, all in a single-party state that was underwritten and sustained by Britain.

Today the north is a shared place, but it is not a settled place. Demographic changes continue. There are more Catholics now than Protestants. It should be remembered that not all Catholics support unity and likewise not all supporters of unity are Catholic.

The parliament in the north no longer has an overall pro-British Unionist majority. There is one seat advantage in favor of those who support continued partition over those who seek Irish Unity.

The demographic trend is clear from surveys, elections, and census data: increasing support for Irish Unity. This trend is set to continue. Support for unity is greatest among the under-45-year-olds.

As support for unity grows, so opposition to planning for referendums becomes unsustainable. It is like being on a journey and being told you cannot set the destination and route.

Ireland is changing. One day soon we will look out the window and all will have changed. The right thing to do is to prepare to manage the change, tend the garden, and watch it grow.

Have a great weekend.

Is mise,

Ciarán 
Ciarán Quinn is the Sinn Féin Representative to North America