By Bruce Lowe
Dear Six Nations Followers and Fans:
Week 3 gave us a good fiesta of exciting rugby. Italy held their own quite well with three tries in the first half against France, but Gallic power, speed and skill overwhelmed them, and unleashed a mass of tries in the second half.
Wales offered some hope of resurgence in Cardiff, but the Irish came through, as they usually do. The Calcutta Cup was anybody’s game in the second half, but, as is sadly often the case, the Scots blew it! What this has only done is set up perhaps the most meaningful game of the Six Nations at the start of the weekend and almost before anyone’s had a chance to grab a coffee.
Ireland v France, Aviva Stadium Dublin 9.15am
For the first time in the Tournament, I have a really hard time picking the outcome of this immensely pivotal match. Lucky for Ireland that it’s in Dublin, but that won’t intimidate France as much as Twickenham always seems to.
At the outset of the Tournament, I opined that Ireland might be “creaking” a little. But they keep proving me wrong time and time again. This is a game for the ages – so much rides on it for Ireland, heartbreakingly robbed of a Grand Slam in 2024 by a last minute Marcus Smith drop goal.
All that now realistically stands in their way for a 2025 Grand Slam is a powerhouse juggernaut of a French team, with a giant pack of forwards, immense depth, stacked with World class players at virtually all the key positions, led by the inspirational Antoine Dupont at scrum half (Dupont very much reminds me of the brilliant Argentine scrum half Gus Bichot, who led a humiliation of France in the third place match in the 2007 Rugby World Cup Final in Paris – I was there).
France’s motivation will be redemption for the Twickenham loss, and a good chance for the Tournament championship (due to all of the points they already picked up in the overpowering wins against Wales and Italy). They also add back in first choice starters fly half Ntamack and winger (and Dan Akroyd look alike) Penaud.
France’s bench is 7-1 forwards v backs, and Ireland’s is 6-2, which says something about where both coaches think the game will be won or lost. For Ireland, the pressure is huge–fear of being pipped at the Grand Slam post again (even if they win the Tournament, it will be the difference between being remembered as being very good and being the stuff of Legend!).
France crushed Italy and Wales, but the Irish play a stifling high-pressure game, quick to the break down, all over the field. This will be the last home match for three hallowed veterans – O’Mahony, Healy, and Murray. Caelan Doris is back and only Mack Hansen is out injured. Truly a match not to be missed! Give the home nudge to the Boys in Green – just!
Scotland v Wales, Murrayfield Edinburgh 11.45am
Another one that’s tough to call, and, of course, both teams are out of the marbles. Wales have lost 15 in a row but showed vast improvement in only losing by nine points to Ireland. An almost unchanged team now goes up against the Scotland side that was supposed to be one of the best ever, was a major disappointment at home to Ireland, and squandered opportunities to beat England at Twickenham, including a game winning conversion.
As we saw when Italy tied the score with thirty minutes left to go, Murrayfield can go awfully quiet. But the brilliant Darcy Graham is back on the wing, the Scots have a fair abundance of talent, and while Wales could achieve an upset, I expect the Scots to pull away in the end. Â
England v Italy, Twickenham Sunday 11 am
Coming off a real drubbing in the second half against a rampant French team in Rome, Italy now has to face up at Twickenham against an England side still in the hunt for the Tournament championship. It’s a tough ask.
Italy’s wide-open game made them very susceptible to French counterattacks, so perhaps their game may be more effective against an England side which still can’t seem to figure out how best to optimally use the mercurial Marcus Smith. Now he’s on the bench, supposedly to open up opportunities later in the match against tiring opponents.
England have come in for some criticism of their coaches and selections in recent weeks, with some justification. However, notwithstanding Italy’s great improvement, including the strong “Brexoncello” center pairing (Brex and Moncello), which is making people take notice – all of which is great to see – while it should be an entertaining game, but, I’m sorry Azurri, I expect England to run out winners by a comfortable margin by the end.  Â
Best advice: make an early start Saturday – if ever a match should be watched live, this is it!
Best regards,
Bruce
*Bruce Lowe is a partner at Taft, Stettinius & Hollister LLP, and a Board Member of the 1964 Rugby Foundation.
