By Judge Michael C. Mentel
Twenty-seven years ago an agreement was entered into by the British and Irish governments, along with key unionist and nationalist political parties, which brought an end to the Troubles. The agreement was the Good Friday Agreement (the “GFA”).
The GFA established various political structures to realign the unionist and nationalist communities towards a cooperative and respectful coexistence. Notably, these structures include The Northern Ireland Assembly, The Northern Ireland Executive, the North/South Ministerial Council, and the British-Irish Council. Although these structures suffered some difficulties over the years, they are still in place today.
The GFA Envisions Unification
The GFA is not, however, an instrument that is limited solely to ending the Troubles. Nor is it limited to maintaining the post agreement status quo. The signatories to the GFA envisioned, by its terms, a democratic political structure that, when activated, empowers the people of the north and the south to create a new and united Ireland.
Stepping back for a moment, the GFA is the product of two agreements, The Multi-Party Agreement and The British-Irish Agreement. The provisions that address unification are identical in each agreement. In these agreements, the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland “shall” call for a border poll (a vote) on unification if it appears that “a majority” of citizens in the north want to unify with the south. The GFA also calls for coordination between the Republic and the north before a border poll is called. In other words, the GFA sets out the processes under which unification will occur. Nonetheless, before a border poll is called “front end” planning must occur.
Ciarán Quinn, Sinn Féin Representative to North America, stated in concise terms the next steps that must be executed to achieve unification. “The next stage of the discussion must be how we all work together to bring about a new and united Ireland.” He added that it will be necessary “[t]o overcome the obstacles of the resistance of the British Government and the refusal of the Irish Government to plan, prepare, or advocate for Unity”.
Danny Morrison, Secretary of the Bobby Sands Trust, author, former Publicity Director for Sinn Féin, and former Provisional IRA volunteer, supports Ireland’s unification under the terms of the GFA. He sees the “direction of travel is towards Irish unity.” He also sees unification being rebuffed, not only by the unionists but, by the UK and Irish governments.
Former Taoiseach (Tee-shahk) and Fine Gael Party leader Leo Varadkar, a supporter of Irish unity, recently stated that planning for unification is necessary. He noted that a referendum is on the horizon. In general, he cites the demographics, election results, and the recent surveys of young adults in support of unification as indicators of a likelihood for a border poll being called.
Varadkar warned those seeking unification that “[it will not] just happen by osmosis or by saying nothing”. He added, “I firmly believe that building a new and united Ireland is the next step in our national journey and I believe that Irish-America can help us to make those next steps”.
Ireland’s Future, a non-partisan organization advocating for a united Ireland, states that, “[i]t is imperative that the process of information gathering and planning commences without delay and given the level of resources required to do this, the planning process can only be conducted effectively at the government level.” Empirically, all information signals that governmental planning, by the UK and the Republic, needs to take place in preparation for a border poll.
Economic Indicators Support Unification
A factor that is scrutinized above all other factors surrounding unification is how much will Irish unity cost? In a recent projected public finance analysis of a United Ireland, prepared by Professor John Doyle, Dublin City University, in conjunction with Dr. Eoin Magennis, Ulster University, Professor Doyle concluded that the cost in the first year of a united Ireland would be €3 billion; a cost considerably lower than previous estimates.
The previous estimate, asserted by Professor John FitzGerald, Trinity College Dublin, in 2024 estimated the cost to be between €8 billion and €20 billion euros. Professor FitzGerald is the son of the late Dr. Garret FitzGerald, former Taoiseach, and leader of the Fine Gael Party.
Professor Doyle’s expectation is that the cost of public services and delivery would improve under a united Ireland. He anticipates that economies of scale would be achieved, as greater centralization and specialization of services improves particularly in health care.
One of several lingering questions is that of continuing pension payments to citizens in the north who are retired or moving towards retirement. Will the UK continue to pay out pensions to northern pensioners in a post-unification era or will responsibility shift to the new Ireland? It is incumbent upon the UK and Irish governments to conduct cross border dialogue to address the issue now in anticipation of a border poll.
Surveys Find Support for Unification
Recent surveys by Northern Ireland Life & Times and information reviewed from Ireland’s Future have found that support for unification is on the rise.
In the last two years, the percentage margin of those in the north who do not support unification has been cut in half. A survey released in May 2025 found that 42% of northern citizens currently do not support unification while 36% support unification; a margin of 6% not in support of unification. In 2023, the same survey found a lack of support for unification by a 12% margin.
A recent Queen’s University and Ulster University survey of 18 to 24 year olds in the north found support for unification by an 18% margin; a first for this demographic. In the south, a cross border survey conducted by Ipsos, released in February 2025, found that 64% of Irish citizens would support unification while 16% are unsupportive; a 48% margin in support of unification.
UK and Irish Governments Are Impediments
In March of this year, UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and Taoiseach Micheál Martin released a joint statement “reaffirming” their “co-guarantorship” of the GFA. What is telling about the joint statement is what it does not state. Absent from the leaders’ joint statement is any mention of a mutual planning process in anticipation of a border poll established under the GFA.
The two leaders “pledged to deepen cooperation through 2030, emphasizing peacebuilding, sustainable development, and shared security interests.” The leaders agreed to establish a “UK-Ireland 2030 Steering Group” adding that, “[t]ogether we will ensure this complements the institutions of the Good Friday Agreement and their crucial role at the heart of our essential and unique relationship.” In other words, maintain the status quo.
Taoiseach Martin has been unequivocal in his opposition to calling for a 2030 border poll. In a speech at Dublin Castle in April of this year, the Taoiseach quoted the GFA’s pledge “to strive in every practical way towards reconciliation.” It is his position that the heart of the GFA is focused on reconciliation, not unification. Instead, the Taoiseach promotes the Shared Island initiative that funds cross border projects regardless of the border.
Former Taoiseach Varadkar has not only criticized the current Taoiseach about his position on a border poll but has pointed out its falsity. “I’ve spoken with many of those who negotiated [the GFA] in 1998” Varadkar said. “[I have spoken to] John Hume, Seamus Mallon, Bertie Ahern, and it’s clear that there would not have been a GFA if there was not the provision for a united Ireland down the line.”
The First Minister of Northern Ireland, and Sinn Féin Vice President, Michelle O’Neill, recently spoke following the North South Ministerial Council. In response to a question about the Taoiseach’s focus on reconciliation and his rejection of a planning process for a border poll, the First Minister said, “we can walk and chew gum [at the same time]”
The silent concern of the Taoiseach and his Fianna Fáil party, and its coalition government partner, the Fine Gael party, is that if a border poll were to be called it would succeed.
Of the three major political parties in the south, Sinn Féin, Fianna Fáil, and Fine Gael, Sinn Féin is the only party of the three with a solid constituency in the north and the south.
In the north, Sinn Féin holds the Office of First Minister, the majority in the Northern Ireland Assembly, a majority of the seats in local government and, while not taking their seats, it holds the majority number of seats in Westminster from the north. Finna Fáil and Fine Gael would have a steep mountain to climb to overcome Sinn Féin’s existing northern constituency in a unified Ireland.
All indicators make clear that a border poll is at hand. The economics, facts, and surveys tell us that the government must lead a planning process, and it must do so soon. The Irish and UK governments aversion to holding dialogue on a border poll, while issuing a joint statement in support of the northern status quo, is not grounded in the GFA and its sound public policy. Preparing a plan is not the execution of the plan. And, failure to do so is inexcusable.
When Irish America speaks the Irish government listens. Reach out to your local Irish American organization and find out how you may make your voice heard. The time is now.
*Judge Michael C. Mentel is an appellate court judge on the Ohio Court of Appeals for the Tenth District. Notably, he participated in round table discussions at the National Committee on American Foreign Policy concerning the British government’s proposed Legacy Bill and participated in a question-and-answer session at the New York City Bar Association focused on the 1981 hunger strike. Judge Mentel is an author and columnist with iIrish newsmagazine. He has also contributed to other publications on contemporary legal and political issues facing Ireland.
