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December 4, 2024
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A Legal Look: The 2025 Irish Budget and Irish Unity: Planning for the Inevitable Cannot Be Ignored
- iIrish Admin
- November 25, 2024
- Edited 2 weeks ago
Table of Contents
By Judge Michael Mentel
The prospect of Irish unification no longer lingers in the ether of aspiration. It has moved to the ambit of reality and must be addressed accordingly. Polling on the unification question bears this out.
In late March of this year, the European Movement Ireland (EMI), an organization operating in conjunction with the Irish Government and the European Union (EU), conducted a comprehensive poll throughout Ireland that included questions on Irish unification.
In the north, EMI’s polling found that 47% of northern citizens felt that a united Ireland will happen, while 43% felt that unification will not occur. Ten percent of those surveyed did not have an opinion.
In the south, 55% felt that a united Ireland would not occur within the next ten years, while the remainder felt it would occur. The poll revealed that 28% of citizens in the north trust the EU as a governing body, 24% expressed trust in the Irish Government as a governing body, while only 8% trusted the British Government and the Northern Ireland Executive, respectively.
Irish Unity
The results of the EMI poll are not surprising. Dr. Brendan O’Leary, Political Science Professor at the University of Pennsylvania, speaking at the Irish Unity Summit in New York earlier this year, opined that political support for unification is growing albeit such support would not exist today. To grow support planning and preparation is required.
Former Taoiseach [/tēSHǝk/] and signatory to the 1998 Good Friday Agreement, Bertie Ahern, speaking in Dublin earlier this year, stated that unification under the Good Friday Agreement is “the most desirable outcome for people and communities across Ireland.” He added that, “[i]t is not a short-term goal. All of those who believe in change must be committed to putting in the hard yards to build a prospectus that reaches across traditional divides and demonstrates to our unionist [neighbors] that they will be respected, their traditions will be cherished [sic] and their children will be at home in the new Ireland we build together.”
Declan Kearney, Sinn Féin MLA, and Chair of the Commission on the Future of Ireland, stated that, “the transition towards constitutional change and a new national, democratic, framework of governance in Ireland needs to be carefully planned and resourced … We can do this together. But we need to prepare and plan.”
As with any substantive planning process, a budget must be established to make it functional. This is also true with unification. Without a budget, it becomes problematic to conduct the necessary planning in preparation for the reality that is on the horizon.
Taoiseach Simon Harris, leader of the Fine Gael party, stated earlier this year that Irish unification is not a priority. In his first interview as Fine Gael leader, Taoiseach Harris was clear that unification of Ireland is “a legitimate aspiration” however, it is not a priority he will seek as Taoiseach. “That’s not where my focus and priority is right now and quite frankly, it’s not where I believe our focus and priority should be … The Good Friday Agreement provides that framework. You can [recognize] different political aspirations and a clear pathway for those to be achieved.”
Unification Costs
Unsurprisingly, when the final 2025 budget was released by the coalition Government in early October, no line item was included for anticipatory planning on Irish unification. Not so, however, in Sinn Féin’s proposed 2025 budget. Included in Sinn Féin’s proposal are line items directed specifically towards planning for Irish unification.
Sinn Féin declared that “[w]e need to expand and deepen the level of research on all areas related to Irish Unity. For this reason, Sinn Féin would allocate an additional €8 million [euro] in [the 2025 budget].”
Also included in its proposed budget is a €3 million euro line item for establishment of Citizen’s Assemblies across Ireland to provide citizen input on relevant constitutional changes. Sinn Féin also proposes capital budgeting for cross-border projects and the establishment of a joint Oireachtas [/EH-rǝk-tǝs/] committee to evaluate recommendations on unification.
In April of this year, a contested report was published by the Institute of International and European Affairs (IIEA) asserting that unification would cost the Irish Government €20 billion euro a year for twenty years.
The report was authored by Professor Edgar Morgenroth of Dublin City University and Professor John FitzGerald of Trinity College, Dublin. FitzGerald is the son of the late Taoiseach and Fine Gael leader, Garret FitzGerald.
The two Professors assert that unification costs, after losing British subsidies and factoring in other budgetary issues, would reach nearly €11 billion euro a year, and increase to €20.5 billion euro a year if pensions and public service pay were paired with those currently in force in the South.
They also assert that these costs could be cut if the north would immediately institute reforms in its educational system. The Professors contend however, that with immediate reforms it would take twenty years before reductions would be felt.
Rejecting the conclusions of the IIEA report, John Doyle of Dublin City University and Dr. Brendan O’Leary of the University of Pennsylvania found that the unification costs asserted in the report are “overblown.” Professors Doyle and O’Leary determined that the IIEA report had overestimated the costs of unification and underestimated the gains achieved financially from Irish unification.
One example that Professor Doyle and Professor O’Leary point out in their critique of the IIEA report is that it incorrectly attributes British pension costs to the Irish Government. According to Doyle and O’Leary, if pensions accrue to citizens of the north before unification takes place, it is the responsibility of the British Government, not the Irish Government, to pay these pre-unification pension accruals.
“Doomsters should be free to dislike the prospect of a united Ireland, but, on current evidence, they are not right to suggest it is likely to lead to the mutual ruin of the North and South,” the two Professors said.
The reality of a unified Ireland cannot be obfuscated. The Dáil Éireann [/dahl AIR-ǝn/] and the Seanad Éireann [/SHAN-ǝd(h) AIR-ǝn/] should consider amending the 2025 budget to include Sinn Féin’s budget proposals for Irish unification. Ignoring the inevitable does not preclude it from arriving.
Irish unification will arrive. Planning for it must begin now.
Read more of Judge Mentel’s A Legel Look columns HERE
This Just In: Longtime Friends of Sinn Féin supporter Pat Donaghy passes away
November 30, 2024
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Donaghy was also a front line supporter of Sinn Féin and a significant financial contributor to Friends of Sinn Féin in the U.S.
This Just In: Sinn Féin Launch Manifesto for the Diaspora
November 29, 2024
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Following a weekend of online engagements with the diaspora, Sinn Féin has launched a manifesto for the diaspora.
The online meetings with Mairead Farrell TD and Rose Conway Walsh TD attracted attendees from across the USA, Canada, Europe, Britain, and Australia.
The representatives outlined the party’s priorities for government including tackling the housing, health care, and cost of living crisis. As well as progressing the cause of Irish Unity.
Speaking on the unveiling of the Manifesto for the Diaspora, Rose Conway Walsh TD said,
Judge Michael C. Mentel
*Judge Michael C. Mentel is an appellate court judge on the Ohio Court of Appeals for the Tenth District. Notably, he participated in a round table discussion at the National Committee on American Foreign Policy concerning the British government’s proposed Legacy Bill and was interviewed in a question-and-answer session at the New York City Bar Association. His interview focused on the 1981 hunger strike and the Troubles in the north. Judge Mentel is an author and columnist with iIrish newsmagazine. He has also contributed to other publications on contemporary legal and political issues facing Ireland.
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