By Judge Michael Mentel
On November 29, 2024, Ireland held a general election to select Teachtai Dála [Tahta Dahl yah, Member of Irish Parliament] to the Dáil Éireann [Dahl Erin, Irish Parliament]. Since 1919, Ireland has convened thirty-four Dáils including the one recently elected.
The results from the November election reflect little change from the previous coalition government led by Fine Gael [Fine Gale, Family or tribe of the Irish]. Fianna Fáil [fee-uh-nuh Foyle, Soldiers of destiny, or Warriors of Fál] prevailed, taking 21.9 percent of the vote, followed by Fine Gael with 20.8 percent. Sinn Féin [Shinn Fein, Ourselves Alone] followed with 19.0 percent of the vote.
Fianna Fáil is now the lead party in a likely coalition with Fine Gael. A simple reverse of roles from the previous Dáil.
Fianna Fáil will need additional coalition partners to lead the Dáil and to select a Taoiseach [Tee shuck, Chief, or Leader], likely Micheál Martin. One party that will not be part of that coalition is Sinn Féin.
Martin has made it clear that entering a coalition with Sinn Féin is unacceptable for policy reasons. However, one policy issue that the new coalition government will face in the new Dáil is the rise in support for Irish unity, a policy staunchly supported by Sinn Féin and ignored by Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael.
Irish Unity
There are two legal frameworks that specifically govern the question of Irish Unity. First, the Irish Constitution. Amended in 1999, it states that “a united Ireland shall be brought about only by peaceful means with the consent of a majority of people … in both jurisdictions in the island.”
The second is the 1998 Good Friday Agreement. In summary, it states that it is for the Irish people, in the north and south, to give consent to unification by ballot initiative.
The increased interest in Irish unification stems from multiple socio-economic developments. The most significant has been Brexit and the decline of Unionism in the north.
Effects of Brexit
Brexit changed the economic structure of the north. Removing the north from the European Union (EU) created economic instability in the region. Albeit the north and south enjoy an “open border” for goods, services, and travel, it is not enough to overcome the stresses placed upon the northern Irish economy because of Brexit.
By contrast, the Republic enjoys relative economic stability through its membership in the EU. Its citizens enjoy ease of travel among the other EU member countries. Millennials, Gen X, and Gen Z young adults desire the economic stability and travel freedom that EU membership provides.
Additionally, the politics of Unionism is on the decline in the north. It no longer holds the political clout it once had. For the first time, Unionists are a minority party in the Northern Ireland Assembly and on many local councils. Elections in the north are reflecting young voters’ rejection of the politics of Unionism and are seeking a new path forward.
Conversely, Sinn Féin is the largest political party in the north. It controls the majority in the Northern Ireland Assembly, holds the office of First Minister, controls the majority of local councils throughout the north, and has the largest elected delegation to Westminster (Sinn Féin abstains from its seats in Westminster – as a matter of policy, they refuse to swear to a required oath of allegiance to the crown and do not recognize British authority over the north).
Plans for Unification
Clearly, the unification of Ireland is not at a precipice. However, the advancing socio-economic and political change in the north and the Republic warrants governmental planning for unification.
Sinn Féin has been the most vocal advocate for unification planning. Sinn Féin President, Mary Lou McDonald, commenting on its report from the Commission on the Future of Ireland, stated that, “Sinn Féin is saying very clearly that the next government in Dublin must prioritise [sic] planning for constitutional change and reunification and for the unity referendums as provided by the Good Friday Agreement.”
Sinn Féin is not alone in this call. The Labour Party (Ireland), the Social Democrats, the Green Party, and the SDLP in the north have advocated for unification planning by the next government.
The Labour Party declared that “[o]nly the Irish State can lead on the political and administrative processes leading towards a unity referendum, so this task will have to be taken up by the next government to ensure adequate preparation … moving towards a standalone [sic] senior ministry in advance of a referendum.”
The Social Democrats stated in their manifesto that “supporting the unification of our island will be an important objective … We are still missing a roadmap for how to get there … New and stronger arguments must be presented to persuade a majority to vote for it and people should be able to see a solid plan for what would happen after unification.”
The Green Party has affirmed its commitment towards reaching a consensus on unification. At minimum, it advocates for the recognition of “the evolving political and demographic landscape.”
In the north, the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP), has called for unification planning. Following Sinn Féin’s lead, the SDLP formed a New Ireland Commission to dialogue with political parties in the Republic on Ireland’s unification.
Former SDLP leader Colum Eastwood said, “I have heard people talking about it that I wouldn’t have heard talking about it before and I think we now have really a responsibility on those of us who want to see change to make it happen, but also to make it happen in a way that brings people with us.”
The two parties who will form the bulwark of a coalition government in the Republic, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, have been absent or non-supportive of a planning process. Fianna Fáil, and its leader Micheál Martin, have effectively obfuscated on the issue. Although its manifesto supports unification, it leans into supporting the Shared Island project instituted in 2020 by then Taoiseach Martin.
Simply described, the Shared Island project establishes partnerships with the north to maintain a status quo that is short of unification. Martin has recently stated that he would not support a “boarder poll” on unification.
Fine Gael and its leader, Simon Harris, share a similar viewpoint with Fianna Fáil towards unification. In his first interview as Fine Gael leader in early 2024, Harris was clear that unification of Ireland is “a legitimate aspiration,” however, it is not a priority he would seek as the new Taoiseach.
“That’s not where my focus and priority is right now and quite frankly, it’s not where I believe our focus and priority should be …The Good Friday Agreement provides that framework. You can [recognize] different political aspirations and a clear pathway for those to be achieved.”
The new Dáil Éireann will have to come to terms with the reality that is Irish unification. It must heed to this reality. It must establish a governmental vehicle to initiate the necessary planning and commence such efforts at the earliest opportunity.
Read more of Judge Mentel’s A Legal Look columns HERE
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Judge Michael C. Mentel
*Judge Michael C. Mentel is an appellate court judge on the Ohio Court of Appeals for the Tenth District. Notably, he participated in a round table discussion at the National Committee on American Foreign Policy concerning the British government’s proposed Legacy Bill and was interviewed in a question-and-answer session at the New York City Bar Association. His interview focused on the 1981 hunger strike and the Troubles in the north. Judge Mentel is an author and columnist with iIrish newsmagazine. He has also contributed to other publications on contemporary legal and political issues facing Ireland.
